At the start of February, when we were nearing the start of the CWC '11, it was an easy task picking out the 8 teams who I thought would reach the QFs. (read: ICC Cricket World Cup 2011 Predictions) We are now at the business end of the CWC 2011. And it can be safely said that the top 8 teams have rightly qualified for the quarterfinals. The results till now have simply decided who plays who, and from now on it's a pure knockout format. A do or die situation for all teams alike. And with all the teams having lost at least one match in the league phase, the chances of teams entering finals are sort of equal for everyone. Nevertheless, there are some factors that can determine who are the favourites for world cup 2011, and who will come out on top in the end.
Quarterfinal Previews
QF1 - Pakistan vs West Indies (Wednesday, Mar 23, Mirpur)
The first QF is between team 1 of group A, Pakistan, and team 4 from group B, West Indies. On current form, we would have to say that Pakistan are favorites. They have not just topped group A, but also beaten current world champions Australia on the way, ending their 34 match CWC winning streak. Their batting looks decent, and the bowling has always been strong, and add to that the amazing bowling run that Shahid Afridi. On the other hand, West Indies have been erratic. They steamrolled Bangladesh, but struggled against most others. Chris Gayle looks out of sorts too. Here, I would give a 70:30 chance favoring Pakistan.
QF2 - India vs Australia (Thursday, Mar 24, Ahmedabad)
The second QF is the big game. The hosts vs the world champions. Though Australia ended up third in their group, which was the result of losing just one game, they aren't the world champions for no reason. Winning more than 30 games on the trot in CWCs is no mean feat. And if one thought the law of averages had to catch up with them some time, well they lost the last game, so even that theory is out of the window. Ponting has been in poor form, but he plays above average against India, and maybe this is the game for him. Though, Australia's bowling, except Bret Lee, seems to look toothless. India on the other hand have the powerpacked batting line up, which has displayed what it can do in the league games. Though, the record breaking collapses that they have displayed in the previous two matches are surely a cause for concern. And in the bowling, besides Zaheer Khan, no one else looks like doing any major woodwork damage. So with the home support, will India win the world cup or will the extra burden weigh them down? Here, I would give a 60:40 chance favoring Australia.
QF3 - South Africa vs New Zealand (Friday, Mar 25, Mirpur)
South Africa look the be the perfect unit, and all departments of their game seems solid. Kallis, Amla, De Velliers are all class acts, and Steyn and Morkel are in top form. And there is no need to say anything about the high fielding standards that the Proteas have. It is no surprise that they topped group B. New Zealand have been erratic to say the least. But you can never rule the Black Caps out of any game. They have these mediocre matches, and then suddenly spring up a surprise. And most of their top order is itching to make a mark in this CWC, so this can be the game. The bowling though looks on the weaker side, while in the fielding department, they can match SA stride for stride. Here, I would give a 65:35 chance favoring South Africa.
QF4 – Sri Lanka vs England (Saturday, Mar 26, Colombo)
Sri Lanka have had some good games, and some close losses. Overall, they look like a good unit. Sangakara is solid at the top, and he might just lead from the front to bat the English out of the game. In the bowling section, Malinga will be steaming in with his toe-crushing yorkers. Lemme dismantle the woodwork, or I crush your toes. England will consider themselves lucky to have reached the QFs. At one stage in the tournament, they seemed headed nowhere but home. But then it brings back memories of the '92 CWC when Pakistan were all over the place, but lifted the cup in the end. Straus has been in great nick and can lead from the front. With Pietersen already out of the equation, they will need someone to up the anti. Broad and Swann are decent bowlers and can win a match on their day. England score a point over Sri Lanka when it comes to bowling. Here, I would give a 60:40 chance favoring Sri Lanka.
Semifinal Forecast
So as per the above study of things as they are, and might be, we might be heading for a Pakistan vs Australia and South Africa vs Sri Lanka showdown. Though cricket is a funny game, and it is very well possible that I will be kicked in the face ending up with all the wrong predictions. Even the greatest of experts always seem to go wrong hey! So if you, just like everyone else, is wondering who will win the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, just a little tip, go with your head and not your heart. OK, now accordingly, in the SFs, if sense prevails, I think South Africa and Australia would be the winners. Though I shudder to think how SA have always snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in most other CWCs. So let's just wait and see.
Quarterfinal Previews
QF1 - Pakistan vs West Indies (Wednesday, Mar 23, Mirpur)
The first QF is between team 1 of group A, Pakistan, and team 4 from group B, West Indies. On current form, we would have to say that Pakistan are favorites. They have not just topped group A, but also beaten current world champions Australia on the way, ending their 34 match CWC winning streak. Their batting looks decent, and the bowling has always been strong, and add to that the amazing bowling run that Shahid Afridi. On the other hand, West Indies have been erratic. They steamrolled Bangladesh, but struggled against most others. Chris Gayle looks out of sorts too. Here, I would give a 70:30 chance favoring Pakistan.
QF2 - India vs Australia (Thursday, Mar 24, Ahmedabad)
The second QF is the big game. The hosts vs the world champions. Though Australia ended up third in their group, which was the result of losing just one game, they aren't the world champions for no reason. Winning more than 30 games on the trot in CWCs is no mean feat. And if one thought the law of averages had to catch up with them some time, well they lost the last game, so even that theory is out of the window. Ponting has been in poor form, but he plays above average against India, and maybe this is the game for him. Though, Australia's bowling, except Bret Lee, seems to look toothless. India on the other hand have the powerpacked batting line up, which has displayed what it can do in the league games. Though, the record breaking collapses that they have displayed in the previous two matches are surely a cause for concern. And in the bowling, besides Zaheer Khan, no one else looks like doing any major woodwork damage. So with the home support, will India win the world cup or will the extra burden weigh them down? Here, I would give a 60:40 chance favoring Australia.
QF3 - South Africa vs New Zealand (Friday, Mar 25, Mirpur)
South Africa look the be the perfect unit, and all departments of their game seems solid. Kallis, Amla, De Velliers are all class acts, and Steyn and Morkel are in top form. And there is no need to say anything about the high fielding standards that the Proteas have. It is no surprise that they topped group B. New Zealand have been erratic to say the least. But you can never rule the Black Caps out of any game. They have these mediocre matches, and then suddenly spring up a surprise. And most of their top order is itching to make a mark in this CWC, so this can be the game. The bowling though looks on the weaker side, while in the fielding department, they can match SA stride for stride. Here, I would give a 65:35 chance favoring South Africa.
QF4 – Sri Lanka vs England (Saturday, Mar 26, Colombo)
Sri Lanka have had some good games, and some close losses. Overall, they look like a good unit. Sangakara is solid at the top, and he might just lead from the front to bat the English out of the game. In the bowling section, Malinga will be steaming in with his toe-crushing yorkers. Lemme dismantle the woodwork, or I crush your toes. England will consider themselves lucky to have reached the QFs. At one stage in the tournament, they seemed headed nowhere but home. But then it brings back memories of the '92 CWC when Pakistan were all over the place, but lifted the cup in the end. Straus has been in great nick and can lead from the front. With Pietersen already out of the equation, they will need someone to up the anti. Broad and Swann are decent bowlers and can win a match on their day. England score a point over Sri Lanka when it comes to bowling. Here, I would give a 60:40 chance favoring Sri Lanka.
Semifinal Forecast
So as per the above study of things as they are, and might be, we might be heading for a Pakistan vs Australia and South Africa vs Sri Lanka showdown. Though cricket is a funny game, and it is very well possible that I will be kicked in the face ending up with all the wrong predictions. Even the greatest of experts always seem to go wrong hey! So if you, just like everyone else, is wondering who will win the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, just a little tip, go with your head and not your heart. OK, now accordingly, in the SFs, if sense prevails, I think South Africa and Australia would be the winners. Though I shudder to think how SA have always snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in most other CWCs. So let's just wait and see.
If things go as put down here, an Aussie Proteas final seems on the cards. So yes, if you ask me who are the favourites to win the cricket world cup 2011, I would say Australia. But as I said, cricket is a funny game, right!!!
Labels: Win the Cricket World Cup
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